School supply promotions arrive weeks before term begins and fade before it starts. The pattern follows how families actually shop for the season.
The shopping window is short and fixed
Unlike gift seasons, this one has an immovable deadline. Supplies must be bought before term starts, which compresses the purchasing into a few weeks.
Retailers know the window closes completely rather than tapering, so there is no value in holding promotional strength in reserve.
Everything competitive is deployed at the start, when the largest number of families are still deciding where to shop. Holding back a stronger offer for later would simply mean advertising it to households that have already finished buying.
The first visit captures the whole list
Families buy from a list rather than item by item, and most complete that list in one or two trips to minimise effort.
Winning the first visit therefore wins the entire basket, which is worth far more than winning any individual product comparison.
Very low prices on a handful of recognisable items exist to secure that visit, and the rest of the list carries normal margin.
Basic supplies are the loss leaders
Notebooks, pencils and folders are ideal for this because families know roughly what they should cost and can judge a price instantly.
Items without a familiar reference price, including bags, electronics and clothing, are where the margin sits and where prices hold firm.
The mix is deliberate, and it is why a basket assembled entirely from advertised items behaves very differently from a complete list. The advertised prices are genuine; they simply cover the part of the list that costs least to supply.
Late shoppers face the opposite market
As term approaches, promotional support ends and the remaining stock is whatever earlier shoppers did not take.
Prices firm up while selection narrows, so a late shopper pays more for less choice, which is unusual in retail and specific to deadline-driven seasons.
Only after term begins does the leftover stock reach clearance, by which point the immediate need has passed.
Where the clearance actually helps
Post-season clearance suits consumable supplies that keep indefinitely and will be needed again, since nothing about a notebook expires.
It suits clothing and bags less well, because sizes have been picked over and children grow between one year and the next.
Splitting a list into items that store and items that do not lets a household use both ends of the season rather than one. The consumables come from next year's clearance and the sized items from the early promotional window.